The Christian Science Monitor has a story about who's who, including the most recent Gallip poll looking at how they match up within each party.
A handful of congressional races aren't quite over yet, but the jockeying for the 2008 presidential contest - going on for months, if not years - has burst fully into the open. For the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York, have registered committees and signaled they're probably in. By all indications, outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in.For the Democrats, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has money and organization - and just bowed out of a party leadership position, another sign she may be in. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois says he's pondering a run, possibly positioning himself as the un-Hillary. Outgoing Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is definitely in. Former vice presidential nominee John Edwards has shown all the signs.
But as of now, two years minus a few days until America elects its next president, the front-runners for major-party nomination remain Senators McCain and Clinton. Whether either will ultimately occupy the Oval Office is anyone's guess.
"Here's what's interesting: Both parties have reservations about their presumptive nominees," says Cal Jillson, a political analyst at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
While the CSM does give the latest Gallup numbers, Editor and Publisher spells out the results more clearly:
After a whirlwind political campaign and press tour riding a bestselling book, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois now trails Sen. Hillary Clinton by only 12% among Democratic voters (and Democratic-leaning independents) as their choice for president in 2008, in a new Gallup poll.While Obama's rise in the polls is interesting, but not at all unexpected considering his recent press tour, the fact that Giuliani actually leads McCain -- who has been very active for the party over the last several months -- is quite surprising. It bodes well for Giuliani that he has even a slight statistical lead at this point, without campaigning. And it suggests that McCain's hard move tot he far right is looked at as a betrayal of his "maverick" persona. Or to some of us, that he has sold his soul to Bush's cabal to be the GOP nominee.
On the GOP side, Sen. John McCain surprisingly trails former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 2%.
The poll was conducted Nov. 9-12.
Clinton leads with 31%, and Obama holds 19%. Former Sen. John Edwards comes in third, with 10%, followed by former Vice President Al Gore (9%) and Sen. John Kerry (7%). Sen. Joseph Biden draws 4%, Gen. Wesley Clark 3% and Sen. Evan Bayh and Gov. Bill Richardson just 2% at this point.
Giuliani tops McCain 28% to 26%, with Condoleezza Rice at 13%. Newt Gingrich has 7% and Gov. Mitt Romney 5%.
Gallup makes this interesting observation: "None of the four current front-runners across both parties appears to be resonating with a particular political wing of their party, at least at this point. Giuliani and McCain are about tied among conservative Republicans as well as among moderate/liberal Republicans. Similarly, there is relatively little difference in support for Clinton versus Obama between self-described conservative Democrats and moderate/liberal Democrats."
Clinton's edge over Obama among women is somewhat greater than the overall tally: it's 38% to 18%. But she also leads among men, 23% to 20%.
Personally, McCain scares me. I've seen how low he will go to support the party. And it's REALLY low. I'd feel much better with a Giuliani run against any Dem that gets through the gauntlet. Hillary is still the favorite, and in polls conducted earlier this year she would lose to either Giuliani or McCain. Maybe that has changed of late.
It will be interesting to see who else gets official with their run for the White House in the coming weeks.
No comments:
Post a Comment