Showing posts with label controversy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label controversy. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

RSA Replay: Mind Change - Susan Greenfield

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The video included here is of "Baroness" Susan Greenfield speaking at The RSA about her new book, Mind Change: How Digital Technologies Are Leaving Their Mark on Our Brains (to be released in the U.S. in January, 2015). Her talk was mired in controversy before she ever opened her mouth (see the details in the first companion article below).

Besides the video, I am sharing two articles from The Guardian, both of which are critical of her and her new book, and her refusal to debate other neuroscientists about her "findings."

RSA Replay: Mind Change

Streamed live on Oct 2, 2014


Leading neuroscientist Susan Greenfield considers the vast range of technologies that are creating a new environment around us, and asks: how can we ensure these powerful forces bring out the best in us, and allow us to lead more meaningful, more creative lives?
* * * * *

Despite the fact that Susan Greenfield is a regular contributor to The Guardian, two recent articles take her and her new book out behind the woodshed for a beating. Here are both of them - and the second one is a very detailed take-down of her social commentary parading as science.

Susan Greenfield: why is she reluctant to engage with 'mind change' critics?

The ‘mind change’ activist’s latest attempt to warn us about the dangers of modern technology highlights how arguments from authority should never trump arguments based on evidence


Pete Etchells and Chris Chambers | October 3, 2014



Susan Greenfield: why does she continue to refuse to engage with proper scientific publishing processes? Photograph: Murdo Macleod/Murdo Macleod

Baroness Susan Greenfield has a new book out, which means that she’s back on the media circuit to promote her controversial ideas about how technology affects our brains. In her latest foray on Thursday she gave a lecture at the RSA in London on “Mind Change’, an event mired in controversy before a single word was uttered.

In the lead-up, the author of Bad Science, Ben Goldacre, claimed that he was originally approached to chair the discussion but the Baroness objected to his taking this role, at which point the RSA (rather ironically) changed its mind and retracted its invitation to him.

We contacted Greenfield to verify this claim and she responded through the RSA’s director of external affairs, Nina Bolognesi. Bolognesi stated that “Dr Goldacre was invited by the RSA to chair an event with Professor Greenfield. However, Professor Greenfield’s preference was to have a balanced debate with Dr Goldacre, on a subject where the title was mutually agreed, with Chair holding a neutral view. On Sept 2nd Dr Goldacre declined this offer as he felt he was not an expert on the topic being presented by Professor Greenfield.”

It’s frustrating that the RSA was not more assertive in its original suggestion for the event – it would have been refreshing for the charity to host a more honest, critical debate, and Goldacre would have made an excellent chair.

Aside from this though, the RSA event was disappointing for other reasons. You can watch a recording of it here [posted above], and it’s worth noting that the chair appears to make an effort not to solicit any questions about Greenfield’s position as a controversial public figure. At the outset, Greenfield asks the audience not to use Twitter during her talk – thus attempting to shut down free debate of her ideas, and attempting to impose a didactic, one-way flow of information. If anyone were in any doubt that the Deficit Model is still alive and kicking, then this serves as a reminder that there is much work to be done.

What we’re starting to see in some of the interviews with Greenfield is a gradual amplification of criticisms she has faced over the last few years. The most prominent criticisms were posed by Goldacre in 2011, when he asked why the Baroness refuses to publish her claims within a scientific journal, where they can go through the usual process of scientific scrutiny and peer review. Her response to this has been varied. On the BBC last year, she retorted with “How can I publish just one paper?”. In other interviews, she argues that it shouldn’t matter who publishes on the matter – in her own words “It doesn’t make it more or less valid if I’ve done it or if someone else has.”

No one has ever reasonably asked any scientist to produce a single study to substantiate any one claim. That’s simply not how science works and Greenfield can’t possibly be so naïve as to believe otherwise. But her responses cast an either-or mindset; either you can produce one study, or nothing at all. This is a bizarre standpoint because there is a wealth of studies that could be run – and are being run – to look at all sorts of aspects of technology use, and we’ve discussed some of them here before. Only by running relevant studies can we move beyond the same old surface-level debates about simplistic concepts (like screen time) that don’t have much bearing on the real world.

Most critics of Greenfield don’t take issue with her voicing an opinion. It’s perfectly acceptable to have a view on a subject without having conducted research in that area. However, when you position yourself as such a prominent and persistent advocate of a particular view that has a testable scientific base, you should lead by example – especially when you are a scientist yourself. Develop expertise in that area. Force your arguments to stem from evidence, never from authority. What better way to silence what Greenfield sees as personal criticism than to actually do the research? Greenfield has had more than enough time and funding to lay her cards on the table.


But of course this hasn’t happened. Instead we’re subjected to the same tired arguments and rhetoric. Through what can only be described as a campaign of media manipulation, Greenfield shows that she is afraid of what actual data might reveal. She has adopted the mantle of the pundit who attempts to hoodwink her audience into confusing her personal views with hard facts. But the public isn’t so easily fooled by scaremongering. While the RSA debate offered no insight on “mind change”, it shows one thing clearly. Greenfield has become lost in a sea of her own ideas and is either unwilling or unable to add anything meaningful to the debate about technology.
* * * * *


Mind Change: Susan Greenfield has a big idea, but what is it?

A poorly researched diatribe on the ‘youth of today’, Susan Greenfield’s exploration of Mind Change reads like a Littlejohn column wrapped in the trappings of science


Martin Robbins | October 3, 2014

Bland, logical statements


12 February 2009. In the House of Lords chamber at the Palace of Westminster, Lord Harris of Haringey holds the floor. “My noble friend had some unfortunate experiences when he placed his profile on Facebook a couple of years ago,” he explains, “receiving what the Sunday Times describes as an avalanche of suggestive comments of the ‘Hello, sailor’ variety.”

The Lords have met to hold a debate on the use of social networking sites by children, and the adequacy of safeguards to protect their privacy and interests. As Harris concludes his opening remarks, the Baroness of Ot Moor, Susan Greenfield, rises to her feet to make a statement. There are two different accounts of what happens next.

The first appears in the opening pages of Baroness Greenfield’s new book, Mind Change. One of few scientists to hold a seat in the upper house of Parliament, she tells us that she “decided to present a perspective through the prism of neuroscience,” explaining to the assembled peers, “firstly, the human brain adapts to the environment; secondly, the environment is changing in an unprecedented way; so thirdly, the brain may also be changing in an unprecedented way.”

Greenfield claims to find the controversy that followed inexplicable: “The reaction by the international print and broadcast media to this seemingly bland and logical statement was out of all proportion to its content. Needless to say, I had to endure the inevitable press misrepresentation resulting from a priority of selling copy over actual truth: ‘Baroness says computers rot the brain’ was just one of the more lurid headline-grabbing efforts of one sub-editor.”

The second version comes from Hansard’s official record of what was spoken in the House of Lords that day. “It is hard to see how living this way on a daily basis will not result in brains, or rather minds, different from those of previous generations,” the Baroness explained. Answering her own question, “what might now be in jeopardy?” she listed attention spans, the ability to delay gratification, and empathy. “The mid-21st century mind might almost be infantilised, characterised by short attention spans, sensationalism, inability to empathise and a shaky sense of identity.”

In the five years since that debate, Greenfield has continued to drop her unique brand of “bland, logical statements” on the public with predictable results. Her articles in the press state, in her own words, “one simple fact: the human brain, that most sensitive of organs, is under threat from the modern world.” We are told that our brains are under “widespread attack”; we must wake up to, “the damage that the gadget-filled pharmaceutically-enhanced [world] is doing to our brains”; and sites like YouTube are causing, “the fragmentation of our culture.”

Over the same period, the Baroness has faced growing criticism from leading figures in science and medicine, such as Ben Goldacre and Oxford neuropsychologist Dorothy Bishop. Their request to her is simple: please stop writing op-eds for the Daily Mail, and start presenting your findings in an appropriate peer-reviewed forum.

Mind Change isn’t peer-reviewed, but it’s the closest thing so far to a response. In it, Greenfield lays out her entire argument for the first time; 385 pages of neatly referenced reckonings on the state of our brains and technology’s role in changing them.


Hipster Galileo and the Brain Apocalypse


So what exactly is Greenfield’s idea? In 2012 I wrestled with this question, piecing together fragments from her various articles, and concluding the following. “Greenfield’s hypothesis is that an unknown level of exposure to an unspecified subset of modern technologies may be affecting an indeterminate number of people’s brains in an undefined way, with a number of results.”

I wasn’t far wrong. “The argument underlying Mind Change … goes like this: the human brain will adapt to whatever environment in which it is placed; the cyber world of the twenty-first century is offering a new type of environment; the brain could therefore be changing in parallel, in correspondingly new ways.”

The similarity with “climate change” is deliberate of course. Greenfield compares herself to the plucky pioneers of the green movement in the 1970s and 1980s, fringe groups fighting against the tide whose ideas would soon explode into the mainstream, defining one of the key debates of our generation. She writes as if she sees herself as a sort of lead hipster of the forthcoming brain apocalypse.

The comparison doesn’t work though. Whatever your views on climate change, the phrase represents a clear and testable idea. Human processes are generating carbon dioxide. This accumulates in the atmosphere, at higher levels than would occur naturally. The extra CO2 traps heat that would otherwise have radiated out into space. Storing this extra energy in our skies, land and oceans leads to higher average temperatures and more volatile weather.

Sure, there are complexities and nuances and caveats and exceptions and all the usual baggage that comes with making predictions about a complicated world; but the basic idea can be written down and understood. You can make predictions from it that people can take out into the real world, measure, and test.

Greenfield can’t say the same for her idea, because there just isn’t enough substance to it. Brains adapt to new things, our environment has changed rapidly over the last few hundred years, and presumably this has some effect on us. Nobody really disputes that, but what effects exactly, and through what mechanisms? Where are the “Mind Change” equivalents of higher surface temperatures or CO2 emissions – the things we can measure and study?

So at the end of the third chapter, she attempts an extraordinary gambit. “Mind Change”, she insists, is not a hypothesis but a whole new paradigm. As a consequence, it cannot be tested like a conventional theory; those calling for her to produce evidence are missing the point. Greenfield’s idea is beyond the realms of “proof”.

“Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” she observes, “Thus it is impossible to demonstrate definitively that screen-based activities have no effect at all on the brain or behaviour, any more than I or anyone could prove definitively, to use an age-old example,” here it comes, “that there is not a teapot in orbit around Mars.”

So you can’t disprove the existence of Go… sorry, Mind Change, but surely you can provide some sort of evidence that it exists? “It is impossible to demonstrate just as conclusively that screen-based activities are having an unequivocal effect on the brain.” Why? “A flock of swallows rarely make a summer, and few single peer-reviewed papers … are viewed unanimously by all scientists as conclusive.”

This carries on over several pages that wouldn’t look out of place in a creationist pamphlet. She paints a picture of science filled with dogmatic old sods who refuse to accept new ideas. She invokes stories of brave mavericks like Nobel prizewinner Dr Barry Marshall, who gamely swallowed bacteria to prove they caused stomach ulcers, in defiance of conventional medical opinion at the time. Wisely, she steers clear of Galileo.

It’s clear how Greenfield sees herself and her place in science, but her examples are self-defeating. Marshall and his colleague, Dr J Robin Warren, made a clear prediction. They tested it, they presented the evidence, and minds were changed.

Why can’t Greenfield do the same?


How Facebook ruined the 80s


The table of contents provides one clue to the answer, covering a broad but erratic sweep of social networking, video gaming and web search. “One deliberate omission is the field of internet pornography,” Greenfield explains, “where the controversy and debate are obviously not so much about whether it is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ or about how it impacts on types of thinking, but more about legislation and regulation, which are outside the scope of the journey here.”

If that exception sounds a bit odd, what makes it downright astonishing is that in 2012 Greenfield backed a political campaign for default-on internet porn filters, citing the “vulnerability” of the developing brain. “If I had to choose between unfettered internet access, and having children potentially harmed psychologically or worse by porn sites, then for me the decision is an easy one,” she told the Mail.

Why the omission now? For that matter, why leave out the impacts of television, texting, the telephone, or other technologies that have radically altered our lives? What about electricity, the arrival of which completely transformed our sleeping and eating habits?

What’s never really explained is how the technologies that are included in her analysis are different from those that are excluded. Without that clarity, her story twists into irretrievable knots. Short videos on YouTube are presented as new, alien and risky because they erode attention spans; but short cartoons on television in the 1950s were part of a healthy and balanced upbringing because kids didn’t spend too long watching them.

To make matters worse, over time you detect the scope changing, expanding and contracting as needed to suit the arguments or evidence on a given page. “Technology is not necessarily being used in moderation,” the professor tells us at one point. “Entertainment media use in the United States among the young is, on average, more than 53 hours per week.”

Okay, but we’ve switched from video games and the internet to include television and “entertainment” more generally. It sounds pernickety, but it’s a huge problem. Throughout the book Greenfield insists that the change we’re seeing in the internet era is unprecedented, even compared to the emergence of electricity, telephone or, television; but her case studies keep collapsing because they fail to distinguish between the effects of “all of the above”.

For example, she points to a 90% reduction since 1970 in the ‘radius of activity for a child’, the area of the world they wander freely around in. This is a real and well-documented problem, but it’s not clear at all how this relates to video games, the Internet or social media websites, which wouldn’t appear for another 15, 25 or 35 years.

Are fewer children playing outside because of screens, or is it down to other factors: paranoid parenting, television, urban planning, or more parents driving their kids to school? It’s an interesting question, and the honest answer is probably that we don’t entirely know. Greenfield simply bulldozes her way though all that complexity, uninterested in alternatives. It’s just another another side effect of our screen-based lifestyle. Facebook’s clear and obvious impact on the children of the 1980s.

Which brings me back to the table of contents. The twenty chapters include sections of social media, video games, web surfing, and search engines. It’s exact;y what you’d expect from a book by Susan Greenfield, but wait a minute: isn’t this the wrong way round?

Most scientists set out to investigate a phenomenon. This thing is happening – why is that? On that basis you might expect to see chapters on shrinking attention spans, rising rates of depression, generational changes in empathy, and so on. Susan Greenfield’s investigation begins with a pre-conceived list of answers.


More selfish, or more screwed?


If new technologies are having a big impact on our society then it should be visible in certain population trends; the way we can detect the impact of smoking through cancer rates. Sure enough, trends become Greenfield’s favourite weapon in this book. She wields them like an overenthusiastic kid with their first hammer, battering away at the world with reckless abandon.

Take the decline in attention spans of schoolchildren, as Greenfield does. It’s fair to say that a lot of teachers agree with the professor and blame this on new technologies. The assumption is that kids are so over-stimulated by their diet of Grand Theft Auto, Snapchat and instant messaging, that sitting in a classroom with an adult droning at them all day seems slow and dreary in comparison.

That’s plausible, but then it’s also the case that kids aren’t getting as much exercise as they used to, and we know that lack of physical activity can affect performance on tasks requiring concentration. We know that teaching methods and standards will have changed in the same period. We know that IQ has been ticking upwards. There are many alternative explanations here and I’m not singling any out, but Greenfield seems singularly uninterested in exploring them.

Next up is empathy, which, we are told, is in decline. What researchers really mean by that is that kids answer a bunch of questions in a survey differently than their parents did 30 years ago. Data for previous generations doesn’t exist, so we can’t set this against any longer-term benchmark. Does it mean I’m part of a selfish generation? Do these measures have any real correlation to real world actions?

Greenfield quotes studies that show younger people volunteer less, but that’s not surprising when we have to work longer hours to pay higher university costs, and when buying a house is now beyond the reach of most young families. Are we more selfish, or are we just more screwed, facing the pressures of higher debt and lower standards of living than our parents?

Is more empathy even a good thing, as Paul Bloom asks in a fascinating essay? People with greater empathy are more likely to report asymmetrical relationships, and more prone to depression and anxiety. Women tend to score higher in tests of empathy, and this could easily set them at a disadvantage in the workplace.

None of these questions are even brought up, let alone tackled, and we’re left with more “ifs” than a Kipling poem. If the measure of empathy is accurate. If that translates into lack of kindness. If more empathy is always better. If the previous generation weren’t just an outlier. If this could somehow be linked to the rise of the internet rather than perhaps a change in parenting styles as researchers investigating the decline have suggested. If. If. If.

Apparently the kids can’t read either. “Already literacy standards are declining,” Greenfield asserts. “Research has shown that many children are more likely to own a mobile phone than a book. Another study … found that teenagers now prefer easier reads such as the Harry Potter and Twilight Series.”

Let’s set aside the million-plus words of the Harry Potter series for a moment. Greenfield’s statement is both vague and untrue. Literacy levels in England have been rising, not falling. It’s true that we’ve slipped behind other countries (22nd out of 24 countries in the developed world last year) but who leads the index? Japan – a country not entirely unfamiliar with video gaming. That valuable piece of context is conveniently omitted.

Of course as soon as the trends disagree with Greenfield’s assumptions, she finds reasons to ignore them. She notes for example that, “the violent crime rate is going down while the popularity of M-rated video games has increased.” But? “But then decreases in crime rate are most likely to be caused by a host of complex socio-economic factors.”

Oh so now it’s more complicated …


Whatever you want to see


At times, this greedy extrapolation goes beyond exaggeration to complete fiction. Research is present which simply doesn’t say what Greenfield claims it does. Take the following paragraph:


In a survey of US youth aged between 10 and 19, gamers spent 30% less time reading and 34% less time doing homework. Granted, it is hard to separate the chicken from the egg: perhaps children who perform more poorly at school are likely to spend more time playing games, which may give them a sense of mastery that eludes them in the classroom. We need to go beyond correlation to cause: but what we can’t do is just ignore the problem altogether.

Wait a minute, “perform poorly at school”? The study only recorded how long kids spent on various activities. It said absolutely nothing about academic performance and didn’t even attempt to investigate it, a fact the authors make crystal clear in their paper. “An important next step for future research will be to assess the ways in which video game play is related to academic and social outcomes.”

The survey was published in 2007. The following year one of the authors, Elizabeth Vandewater, actually took that next step in a review of research conducted up to that point. “Most studies find a small negative link between the total hours a child spends viewing TV and that child’s academic achievement. But when researchers take into account characteristics of the child, such as IQ or socioeconomic status, this link typically disappears.”

Earlier this year, PLoS One published a vast meta-study looking at data from 192,000 kids in 22 countries. Their conclusion? “Contrary to claims that increased video-gaming can impair academic performance, differences in academic performance were negligible across the relative frequencies of videogame use. Videogame use had little impact on adolescent academic achievement.”

Other studies may disagree, but my point here isn’t whether the conclusion is right or wrong, but that Greenfield is saying things about the research she cites that simply aren’t true. There’s no reason to assume that gamers who do their work faster do it less well – they may just be more motivated, more intelligent, or members of households that are higher on the socioeconomic ladder.

Then we have data taken completely out of context, like the literacy data earlier. “The culture of social networking may predispose users to a narcissistic mindset that in turn enforces low self-esteem,” she declares. “This in turn encourages the development of an exaggerated or completely different identity: the hoped-for, possible self.”

That might seem a bit extreme, but:


It is precisely what might now be happening. Kidscape, a British charity that helps prevent bullying and protects children, conducted a survey in which they assessed young people’s cyber lives through an online questionnaire. Of the 2,300 or so respondents … one in two say they lie about their personal details on the internet. Of those, the one in eight young people who speak to strangers online are the most likely not to tell the truth, with 60% lying about their age and 40% about their personal relationships.

Greenfield goes on to explain how this highlights “the fact that children often create a different persona when they interact with others, especially strangers, in a way that they wouldn’t in the real world.” Taken in isolation, all this sounds terrifyingly dystopian. But before we call the wahmbulance, let’s put this in context.

It turns out – and this may shock you so please, prepare yourself – teenagers lie. Research suggests that up to 98% of teenagers lie to their parents, and the other 2% were probably lying about whether they lie to their parents:


The teens lied about what they spent their allowances on, and whether they’d started dating, and what clothes they put on away from the house. They lied about what movie they went to, and whom they went with. They lied about alcohol and drug use, and they lied about whether they were hanging out with friends their parents disapproved of. They lied about how they spent their afternoons while their parents were at work. They lied about whether chaperones were in attendance at a party or whether they rode in cars driven by drunken teens.

In other words, and contrary to what Greenfield seems to believe, teenagers in the real world lie. They lie about personal details, they lie about their age, they lie about all the things they lie about online and they do it to your faces.

What does this all mean? I wouldn’t like to guess. I don’t know whether these statistics are indicative of some broader problem in society or not. What puzzles me is why Greenfield is so completely uninterested in finding out. Why she fails to ask any meaningful questions about almost any of the research she cites, to spend the 10 minutes it took me to find eg Vandewater’s follow-up today, or to critique and analyse what she covers in any substantial way.

It’s not that she’s necessarily wrong; it’s that she just doesn’t seem to care whether she’s right. All that seems to matter is that it can be twisted into the right shape to fit the preset list of answers she started the book with.

Of course I’m just as biased as Greenfield is, but that’s really my point: without good scholarship, if you cram together all these trends and charts and statistics you end up forming a kind of Rorschach test. You can find in those squiggly lines whatever you want to see.


Raindrops and Autism


In 2011, Greenfield was interviewed for New Scientist about what by now had become her pet subject. “You think that digital technology is having an impact on our brains,” asked the journalist Frank Swain, “So what evidence is there?” Greenfield’s response included the line, “There is an increase in people with autistic spectrum disorders.”

The comment sparked a storm of protest, with two main lines of criticism emerging. The first was scientific. One of Greenfield’s colleagues at Oxford, professor of developmental psychology Dorothy Bishop, took the step of writing an open letter pointing out Greenfield’s failure to grasp even the most basic facts about the topic:


A cause has to precede its effect. This test of causality fails in two regards. First, demographically – the rise in autism diagnoses occurred well before internet use became widespread. Second, in individuals: autism is typically evident by two years of age, long before children become avid users of Twitter or Facebook. You also seem unaware of the large literature discussing possible causes of the increase in autism diagnoses, most of which concludes that most, if not all, of the increase is down to changes in diagnostic criteria.

The second criticism was more visceral:


You may not realise just how much illogical garbage and ill-formed speculation parents of children with these conditions are exposed to. Over the years, they’ve been told that their children’s problems are caused by their cold style of interaction, inoculations, dental amalgams, faulty diets, allergies, drinking in pregnancy – the list is endless. Now we can add to this list internet use.

As Tom Madders of the National Autistic Society told the Guardian:


It’s very unhelpful … to have any suggestion that computers might have a harmful role when so many people with autism, and who are very socially isolated, find they can communicate through email and the internet.

Defending her comments, Greenfield issued a dismissive and bizarrely passive-aggressive remark that went on to spawn a Twitter meme: “I point to the increase in autism and I point to internet use. That’s all.”

In Mind Change she revisits the subject in – marginally – more detail. She back-pedals slightly, replacing “autism” with “autism-like trait”, but her writing suggests that Greenfield – who has no experience or expertise whatsoever in autism research – sees little meaningful difference between the two terms.

The studies that Greenfield puts forward here are utterly bewildering. One shows, according to Greenfield, that excessive internet use “has been associated with a lack of emotional intelligence.” The abstract of the paper describes this as a “weaker effect”, but more problematic is that the paper dates back to 2004 – before Facebook and Twitter even existed, online demographics were rather different to today, and a lot of students were still pretty new to the internet. Does the association suggest internet exposure causes a drop in emotional intelligence, or did the internet in its early days draw people with lower EI in the first place? Who knows. Who cares.

Another study examines the EEGs of people looking at faces, and concludes that “young” excessive internet users might be slightly slower. It’s speculative at best, and tells us pretty much nothing, but Greenfield performs a bait-and-switch, comparing the result to “infants who cannot track their mother’s face often become autistic”.

Then we head into the realms of the truly weird. Greenfield cites a pair of studies by researchers at Cornell exploring the relationship between TV viewing and autism diagnoses, and how in Greenfield’s words there might be “possible associations between technology use and the later development of autism.” The authors compared the amount of rainfall – rainfall – in various counties against cable TV subscriptions and autism rates.

Leaving aside the observation that TV seems to have crept back into the ever-changing scope of Greenfield’s book, there’s a pretty obvious explanation for these results. We already know that autism diagnoses are well correlated to socio-economic status – rich people are more likely to get their kids diagnosed. What else correlates with social demographics? Cable TV subscriptions. As for rainfall, well most of the richer states in the US aren’t in the dust bowl.

It’s hard to understand the kind of arrogance that would lead to a person with no expertise in the field drawing this kind of literature together to make broad statements about autism, and feeling so confident about it that they would be willing to spark stories about it in the national press. For most of the book, Greenfield’s sloppy scholarship is just irritating. On a topic as sensitive as autism, a subject already wracked with controversy in recent years, it crosses the line into something frankly unacceptable.


“Well, Twitter is part of the environment”


What about Greenfield’s own research? The “About the Author” blurb at the front of Mind Change informs us that, “She specialises in applying neuroscience to fundamental issues such as the impact of 21st-century technologies on the mind.” This is a whole book about that subject, so you would expect to see some of that work making an appearance.

This is something the Baroness has been challenged on in the past. Ben Goldacre has publicly questioned her unwillingness to publish on numerous occasions over the last four or five years, with no response:


If a scientist sidesteps their scientific peers, and chooses to take an apparently changeable, frightening, and technical scientific case directly to the public, then that is a deliberate decision, and one that can’t realistically go unnoticed. The lay public might find your case superficially appealing, but they may not be fully able to judge the merits of all your technical evidence.

I think these serious scientific concerns belong, at least once, in a clear scientific paper. I don’t see how this suggestion is inappropriate, or impudent, and in all seriousness, I can’t see an argument against it.

Mark Henderson, author of The Geek Manifesto, tackled Greenfield directly on the subject in a debate on Channel 4 News two years ago. “So far as I’m aware, and please do correct me if I’m wrong,” Mark offered, “you haven’t published anything in the academic literature on this, which is – as you know as a scientist – the proper forum for raising such concerns; and I’m very interested to know why you haven’t done that and whether you intend to?”

Greenfield replied, “If the argument is, as a neuroscientist, have I published on the impact of the environment on the brain” – it wasn’t – “then yes I have.”

“But on Twitter specifically?” Mark badgered.

“Well Twitter is part of the environment,” Greenfield responded, unconvincingly.

I’ve looked for relevant work, on her institution’s website and elsewhere, but I can’t find any. The only thing I can say for sure is that none of this work seems to have made it into her book.


Kids these days


Last year Greenfield had the opportunity to set out her ideas in fiction; a dystopian thriller set in the year 2121, which she called “2121”. The title was intended to draw comparisons with Orwell’s 1984 … and one suspects between Greenfield and Orwell.

Reviewing the novel for Vice magazine I described it, charitably I thought, as “a disease vector for stupidity.” She showed us a world in which generations of digital natives raised on video games and social networks were incapable of wisdom, social contact, and even sex. In fairness to Greenfield, she managed to produce one of the most erotic scenes ever written, which I described as follows:


Fred was already loosening the Helmet strap with the other hand that wasn’t angling my chin,” Sim begins. Asked by Fred to remove her “dress thing”, Sim then explains, “It was still stranger now to step outside of my garment. I only did so in the wash-waste, and never outside.” Then they have sex, at which point Fred realises that Sim may not actually know what sex is, which carries the awkward and tragically unexplored implication that Fred is actually a rapist. “Sim,” asks Fred, “do you know what we’ve just done?” “I think so. I think the Fact-Totum says it’s what people used to do before the reproduction programs made everything so much easier.

Once my erection had subsided, it was hard to get past the realisation that this is how Greenfield sees my generation. Once you peel away the scientific gloss, you end up with a laundry list of the sort of dismissive comments that middle-aged, middle-class curtain-twitchers have been making about “young people” for generations. Lazy, degenerate, selfish, good-for-nothing … the kind of comments that, applied to race, gender or ethnicity, would be considerably harder to defend.

It’s clear that Greenfield sees mind change as a particular threat to the young, but her entire understanding of “young people” is ambiguous and outdated. Just as the set of technologies she talks about changes from chapter-to-chapter; her definition of “young” never quite settles on a specific age group or cohort.

In a live-streamed lecture to the RSA yesterday I heard her suggest that today’s teenagers were the first “digital natives”, but that simply isn’t true. I turned 33 last week, and I was among the first generation of kids to get the internet as a teenager. Kids who were hitting puberty at the turn of the millennium are now pushing 30 and having kids of their own.

The Baroness tells us that: “The digital divide means that parents do not necessarily feel equipped to help their children.” That stereotype might have been true a decade ago, but in 2014 it’s utter nonsense. The latest cohort of parents grew up in the internet era – most of them are digital natives too, and well aware of the perils and pitfalls of cyberspace.

There’s a bigger problem looming for Greenfield here. In the same RSA lecture, she invoked this idea of “teens as the first digital natives” to suggest that mind change was a looming threat for the near future; but if the highly plastic brains of most people under 40-odd are already immersed in this new environment, the radical change should already be upon us. So where is it?

Coupled to that vague notion of “youth” is a proud ignorance of modern technology, and an open contempt for its users. In the same House of Lords debate we began with, she spoke of, “the baffling current preoccupation with posting an almost moment-by-moment, flood-of-consciousness account – I believe it is called Twitter – of your thoughts and activities, however banal.” In an interview with the Independent she said of Facebook: “I don’t have to go bungee-jumping to have an opinion on it.”

That ignorance regularly leaves her unstuck. On the topic of video games, Greenfield’s lack of comprehension and inability to distinguish between different genres of game causes her thesis to fall apart at the seams. Discussion veers between “games”, MMORPGs and “action games”. Considering her interest in social networks, it’s odd that the social and group aspects of multiplayer gaming are basically ignored. “Video games reward players for quickly modifying their behaviour when conflict is experienced,” she claims. It’s a nonsense statement that could only come from someone oblivious to the broad scope of gaming in 2014, when most recent hits rely on planning, cooperation and delayed gratification.

Of course, people like Greenfield don’t play video games. It’s almost impossible to separate Greenfield’s analysis of our society from the champagne-clutching position she holds within it. The “cultured” activities enjoyed by her peer group escape criticism. The TV she grew up with was fine, obviously. But the tweeting gamers who fail to conform to a middle-aged, middle-class ideal of the book-loving, theatre-going, London socialite are weird, wrong, pathological, immature.

“At a formal breakfast I attended recently where the main speaker was the British deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, the woman sitting next to me was so busy tweeting that she was at a breakfast with Clegg that she wasn’t actually listening to what he was saying.” Well, maybe he wasn’t that interesting … but one suspects that the former director of the Royal Institution struggles with the idea that a man of such status shouldn’t be listened to.

It’s all weirdly counter-productive. The more Greenfield insists that the people she describes – invariably less fortunate than herself – are defective or antisocial, the more she appears so herself.


Do something …


With no central argument to hang it on, the flesh of Mind Change collapses into a sub-Gladwellian mash-up of hand-picked studies, just-so anecdotes and carefully interpreted statistics. There’s no sense of progress toward any conclusion, just a long gallop of facts and figures that leave the reader with the impression that, well, something must be wrong with all these damned screens about.

“It’s up to us to be proactive and to do something.” That’s Greenfield’s challenge, but there’s a catch. “For Mind Change there is no answer as such, because there is no clear question or goal.” Had this sentence been placed at the beginning of the book rather than the end, a lot of people would have been saved a lot of reading.

You can’t argue against Greenfield’s ideas because when you boil away all the conjecture, the unanswered questions, the innuendo, what’s left is … nothing much.

It’s not that the topic isn’t worth talking about. The world is changing, and our brains are adapting to that new world. Good analysis and research looking at the co-evolution of mind and society can only be a good thing. The problem is that Greenfield adds absolutely nothing to this debate. Her manuscript is a 384-page recital of the oft-mocked phrase common in scientific literature: “more research needed.”

Greenfield shows a complete lack of interest in both the research she cites and the technologies she critiques. Conclusions and positions are misrepresented, but often it seems less deliberate than lazy. She cherry-picks literature that appears to support her case but shows little indication of having read much of it, or asked the kinds of questions that leap from the page on even a casual reading. The professor displays one of the biggest character flaws a scientist can have: a lack of curiosity.

Then there’s the attitude, which stinks. Mind Change opens with a passive-aggressive misrepresentation of her own speech to the House of Lords. She insisted to New Scientist, “I didn’t say, and I’ve been misquoted universally, that [technology] rots the brain and it’s bad, I’ve never given value judgements, ever.” This from the person who spoke of “the damage that the gadget-filled pharmaceutically enhanced [world] is doing to our brains.”

She refuses to respond to or engage with critics like Dorothy Bishop or Ben Goldacre in any meaningful way. When the latter was due to participate in an event with her at the RSA yesterday, she demanded they drop him from the role of chair. When some of Goldacre’s criticisms were put to her, she replied (incorrectly): “He’s not a scientist, he’s a journalist.” Good science needs good criticism; but Greenfield has built herself an echo chamber.


But then this isn’t really science at all. Greenfield’s work is bog-standard social commentary disguised as neuroscience. She has witnessed profound changes in our society over the last 65 years, and she doesn’t like them. The kids of today aren’t polite enough, aren’t respectful enough, they’re spoilt brats and infants, they haven’t grown up properly like we did, they’re not as clever as us, they mock me on their weblogs. It was all much better in the fifties.

Once you peel away the scientific veneer, you find a series of statements that wouldn’t look out of place coming from a pub bore or a Richard Littlejohn column. And then you start to detect what makes her columns and speculations so infuriating to deal with. When Greenfield talks so casually about how broken we are, how inferior our minds, how decadent and unworthy our lifestyles and pursuits, it’s hard not to take it personally. I don’t believe that Greenfield represents a better generation of human being.

Nor is it wise for her to preach from such a precarious pulpit. Are we a generation of rude and lazy narcissists, lacking in mental fibre? Do we lack empathy and understanding toward others in our society? Are we sensationalists speaking in crude sound bites? Do we crave fleeting attention at the expense of meaningful achievement?

Physician, heal thyself.

@mjrobbins

Saturday, May 19, 2012

TED Talks Editors Reject Nick Hanauer's Talk on Income Inequality

This controversy has been all over Facebook (and I am sure other sites as well) as the video too hot for TED to post. The National Journal (not to be confused with the right-wing National Review) has provided a pretty good overview of the controversy.

Over the years I have learned that people love to get bent our of shape about material that is not posted - as if somehow the mere fact of it being withheld makes it important. TED does not post all of he videos they record, even at their flagship events, so I assumed this was not worth paying attention to.

However, it turns out that the topic is one I care a lot about and feel is something we MUST address if we hope to solve some of the problems in this country - income inequality. There is a reason Marx's ideas have been receiving a lot more attention in the last few years - the disparity of wealth in this country is staggering.

Too Hot for TED: Income Inequality


Seattle venture capitalist named Nick Hanauer

May 16, 2012

Here is the bulk of the article, with links to relevant materials. It appears that part of their reasons for not posting this is that Hanauer makes partisan political statements and TED has tried to be non-partisan, which has been an on-going struggle with the locally produced TEDx talks. Take that for what it's worth.

There’s one idea . . . that TED’s organizers recently decided was too controversial to spread: the notion that widening income inequality is a bad thing for America, and that as a result, the rich should pay more in taxes.

(RELATED: The Speech That's Too Hot for TED)

TED organizers invited a multimillionaire Seattle venture capitalist named Nick Hanauer – the first nonfamily investor in Amazon.com – to give a speech on March 1 at their TED University conference. Inequality was the topic – specifically, Hanauer’s contention that the middle class, and not wealthy innovators like himself, are America’s true “job creators.”

(RELATED: The Slides That Are Too Hot for TED)

“We’ve had it backward for the last 30 years,” he said. “Rich businesspeople like me don’t create jobs. Rather they are a consequence of an ecosystemic feedback loop animated by middle-class consumers, and when they thrive, businesses grow and hire, and owners profit. That’s why taxing the rich to pay for investments that benefit all is a great deal for both the middle class and the rich.”

You can’t find that speech online. TED officials told Hanauer initially they were eager to distribute it. “I want to put this talk out into the world!” one of them wrote him in an e-mail in late April. But early this month they changed course, telling Hanauer that his remarks were too “political” and too controversial for posting.

Other TED talks posted online veer sharply into controversial and political territory, including NASA scientist James Hansen comparing climate change to an asteroid barreling toward Earth, and philanthropist Melinda Gates pushing for more access to contraception in the developing world.
TED curator Chris Anderson referenced the Gates talk in an e-mail to colleagues in early April, which was also sent to Hanauer, suggesting that he didn't want to release Hanauer’s talk at the same time as the one on contraception.

Hanauer’s talk “probably ranks as one of the most politically controversial talks we've ever run, and we need to be really careful when” to post it, Anderson wrote on April 6. “Next week ain't right. Confidentially, we already have Melinda Gates on contraception going out. Sorry for the mixed messages on this.”

In early May Anderson followed up with Hanauer to inform him he’d decided not to post his talk.
National Journal e-mailed Anderson to request an interview about what made a talk on inequality more politically controversial than, for example, contraception or climate change. Anderson, who is traveling abroad, responded with an e-mail statement that appeared to swipe at the popularity of Hanauer’s speech.

"Many of the talks given at the conference or at TED-U are not released,” Anderson wrote. “We only release one a day on TED.com and there's a backlog of amazing talks from all over the world. We do not comment publicly on reasons to release or not release [a] talk. It's unfair on the speakers concerned. But we have a general policy to avoid talks that are overtly partisan, and to avoid talks that have received mediocre audience ratings."

You can read the text of Hanauer’s talk here

You can read the full story of Hanauer and his warnings about the decline of the middle class on Thursday as part of National Journal’s Restoration Calls series.

Update: 4:09 p.m.

In a May 7 email to Hanauer, forwarded to NJ, Anderson took issue with several of Hanauer's assertions in the talk, including the idea that businesspeople aren't job creators. He also made clear his aversion to the "political" nature of the talk.

"I agree with your language about ecosystems, and your dismissal of some of the mechanistic economy orthodoxy, yet many of your own statements seem to go further than those arguments justify," Anderson wrote.

"But even if the talk was rated a home run, we couldn't release it, because it would be unquestionably regarded as out and out political. We're in the middle of an election year in the US. Your argument comes down firmly on the side of one party. And you even reference that at the start of the talk. TED is nonpartisan and is fighting a constant battle with TEDx organizers to respect that principle....

"Nick, I personally share your disgust at the growth in inequality in the US, and would love to have found a way to give people a clearer mindset on the issue, without stoking a tedious partisan rehash of all the arguments we hear every day in the mainstream media.

"Alas, my judgment - and it is just a judgment, and that's why my job title is 'curator' - is that publishing your talk would not meet that goal."

Monday, December 26, 2011

Ken Wilber Offers His Final Statement on Marc Gafni



When the latest Marc Gafni thing blew up in September, Ken Wilber eventually issued a tepid statement of support and said he would make a final statement at a later date. Part of the reason Wilber was drawn into it was because Robb Smith, Diane Hamilton, and several other people all made a public break with Gafni. Integral Life ended its affiliation with Gafni's Center for World Spirituality and several teachers stopped working with him.


Well, for Wilber, the date of his final statement came a week or so ago.

Final Ken Wilber Statement Dec. 2011, Marc Gafni / Center for World Spirituality

Monday, September 26, 2011

Joe Perez Joins the "Protect Marc Gafni" Camp

It was only a matter of time before Gafni found another proxy voice for his campaign of martyrdom. Joe Perez is the most recent willing puppet. With Perez, he has the perfect accomplice - Perez has been hacking away at me ever since he came back online in his most recent incarnation (one of his first acts was to "review" my blog and complain that it is not integral enough for him).

And I'll bet Perez doesn't even realize he is being played by Gafni exactly because he has already been critical of me. If it weren't sad, it might be funny.

As is always the case, Gafni tries to obscure the message by smearing the messenger (for example, women who broke his sacred container, Vicki Polin, Luke Ford, any and all other detractors, and most recently John Dupuy).

John had the audacity to speak out, so Marc responds with so much love and nuance, so much righteousness, and also with a not-very-well-veiled threat:
I did not threaten John with a lawsuit or any other such threat. Simply not true. I said to John that I would be forced to reply in a way that shares the deep context of my relationship to John and the great disappointment that I have felt around John and his character which I have called him on directly many times. That would then unmask much of the conscious or unconscious motivation behind John's blog. I wrote a long blog post which does precisely this. I am no longer sure wether anything would be served by posting it. The blogosphere is really not the place for genuine loving conversation between friends.
Two of his favorite ploys are on display here - he said/he said games that can never be proven one way or the other, and threats of exposing personal issues from the past that may or may not be problematic.

So now the "smear Bill Harryman campaign" is in full swing. Joe's big piece of ammunition against me is to accuse me of intellectual property theft. I addressed this in the comments to one of the posts where he again leveled the same accusations, so here is my "defense":
I have never posted anyone's work on this blog without attributing author and source, with links. Often I have permission to do so, and equally often the authors are grateful for the additional exposure. I guess I still have not met the legal standard (or your ethical standard), so yes, I am guilty of "egregious intellectual property theft." If I have hurt anyone by posting their work here, I am deeply sorry. I have never meant to "steal" work, which is why I always include links to the original source. 
So there it is - both an admission of being guilty as charged and an apology to anyone who has been hurt by my actions. Wow, that wasn't so hard. Why can't other people do that?

He says that accusing Gafni of plagiarism (actually, it wasn't me - it was Rocky Anderson, one the owners of the stolen work, and whose "letter of support" from Gafni's last resurrection is still posted on Ganfi's site) is hypocrisy because I am an intellectual property pirate. He isn't accusing me of using other people's work, verbatim, and putting my name on it as though I had written it, so I think we are talking apples and oranges here.

Are these accusations supposed to discredit the letter from Tami Simon on the original post? Is this supposed to discredit the other woman Gafni was sleeping with (mentioned in Tami's letter), in addition to the senior student, Marcy (who wrote in his defense), while not publicly disclosing his separation from Mariana? Or is it supposed to discredit the message by discrediting the messenger?

More and more, as this wears on, I feel sorry for Mariana - she is a new mom with her first child and her world is collapsing around her. She willingly chose Gafni and in full-knowledge of his past, although she believed his retelling of the story with him as victim (always the victim), so she holds her own share in this situation.

And then there is Zion - babies sense the emotions of those around them - what is this doing to him and his future? How I know I have contributed to the suffering of Marc, Mariana, and Zion by telling truths that no one else was willing to tell. I am sad about that. Like each of Gafni's previous children, he will probably grow up without his father - and eventually with the knowledge that his father was a deeply wounded man.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

John Dupuy - My Opinion on the Marc Gafni Situation

I may not be involved with the Boulder version of Integral anymore, but I have not abandoned the people to whom I promised support in the efforts to expose Marc Gafni's manipulations and lies. So here is the latest.

Integral Recovery expert and psychotherapist John Dupuy has offered (on his Integral Life blog) the most compassionate, honest, and psychologically accurate perspectives on the Marc Gafni situation from anyone in the Integral community. If there were more leaders like Dupuy in the community, more of us would have remained involved.

But then there is Robb Smith, CEO of Integral Life, who made this comment on his Facebook page:
I gave Marc a chance many said I should not have. It was probably a mistake to give him leadership authority, but I wanted first hand experience of his character. I read all the material that he presented in his defense and it was convincing. It took me about a year to figure out how he put it all together, and that's when I started to make the separation.
Really, it only took you a year? And yet Gafni kept teaching for two more years - often highlighted as a leader and featured speaker - with no warning to members or his students that he had lied about the Israel situation, that he manufactured the "evidence" that he claimed cleared him? Where is the leadership in that?

I want to believe you are coming from the best interest of the community Robb, but then you reveal how you really weren't stepping up. I'm struggling to understand your actions . . . .

Anyway, here is John's statement:

My Opinion on the Marc Gafni Situation

Posted September 22nd, 2011 by john dupuy in Spiritual Leadership

This is a post that I wrote about 3 days ago, concerning Marc Gafni and the latest debacle. As a courtesy, I sent this post to Marc, saying that I am posting this and quoted the biblical reference Proverbs 27:6: Faithful are the wounds of a friend; but the kisses of an enemy are deceitful. I immediately received a call from Marc, in which he threatened me with legal action and an internet campaign to discredit my character based on all of the personal information that he has found out about me during our years of friendship. To which I say good luck on the legal action and stay posted for the character assassination, which is either going to be very boring or very creative.

In the last few days I have consulted with many friends and colleagues over the nature of this post, to include Ken Wilber and Sally Kempton, and I have decided that I will not be silenced. Ultimately, what influenced my decision to post this was the realization that came out during a conversation with Sally Kempton, myself and my wife, Pam - and that is, I think I owe this to the younger generations of our world-wide Integral community. As this latest sexual scandal emerged with Marc, I have heard from many people who are very hurt by Marc's actions and generally feeling very disillusioned with our Integral spiritual teachers and role models. Based on that, I am posting this. I do this after much reflection and prayer, with sadness and clarity. I still hold out the hand of friendship to Marc but as a real friend, and not as an enabler. And let me be clear, it is not we who are speaking about this who are causing this problem, it is Marc's behaviors and choices that has brought this on. As I teach to my recovery students, the truth hurts, but it doesn't kill, and ultimately, lies kill. So with much love to Marc and all those concerned, and to our worldwide Integral family.
That is the introduction to the post. The threat of lawsuits and character assassination is normal operating procedure for Gafni. A senior student of Marc's named MartyC is currently doing his best to attack me and discredit me wherever he can on the web, so Hey John, join the club! 

Here is the most important passage from John's statement - he confirms and restates what many of us have been saying for years:
It appears to be all part of a single pattern, starting long before Israel, and continuing into the present. As I have struggled with this latest debacle and scandal, I have experienced myriad emotions, from being heartsick, feeling helpless, to being righteously pissed. As I write this, I feel sadness, as I am very loyal to my family and friends. But I believe that Marc has behaved in a way that is unworthy of the position of leadership and authority that he has been granted in our Integral circles. His behaviors, his absolute incapacity to own anything, and his incredible ability to manipulate and play the victim, are simply beyond the pale and unacceptable. I believe Marc is in panic mode right now and his behaviors have caused catastrophic events in his life: losing a major publishing deal, losing his connection as a major personality and teacher at Integral Life, and the questioning by people around the world about his fitness to be a leader in the world spirituality arena. Yet Marc continues to play the victim and spin new angles and even new dharmas to justify his very unwise and dysfunctional behaviors.

In my work with addicts, over the years, I have become very used to seeing lives ruined by addictive acting out. It’s kind of par for the course in the disease of addiction. I have also seen many lives come back from the brink of death and complete dishonor. Not only have I seen lives come back, but I have seen them come back with renewed strength, compassion, devotion, and humility. But it ain’t easy and it takes a lot of work. The first step is to admit that you have a problem and take responsibility. I don’t see this with Marc. Marc is always the victim and always the martyr.

As I have sat with this, talked and emailed with my friends and colleagues in the Integral movement from around the world, I have realized a deep pattern of dysfunction, manipulation, and narcissism in Marc’s case. These are three words that, interestingly enough, characterize the disease of addiction. I had hoped against hope that Marc would learn from his past mistakes and sense of calling, as he brought forth his important teachings of the Unique Self and World Spirituality, and that this would keep his dysfunctional and apparently compulsive behaviors in check. That has obviously not happened. He has hurt his family, his friends, his supporters and our Integral community.
He concludes with this statement, which is both loving and hopeful:
I offer this in the spirit of personal sadness as well as hope that Marc can repent and heal. And I hope that we all can grow up a little bit, though we may have been hurt and disillusioned by the behaviors of our role models and spiritual teachers in the past—that we will not use this as an opportunity to become cynical but that we will challenge ourselves to become those leaders that we had wished we had. God help us all.
But I have already become cynical. So I guess I am one of the lost ones.

Perhaps the only thing that might change my perspective is a direct, video statement from Ken Wilber himself. I'd like to hear an apology for allowing Marc back into the Integral limelight, and for his comments comparing Gafni's accusers to neo-Nazis (the letter was attributed to Sally Kempton and Ken Wilber - it used to be featured on Gafni's blog, but is now gone):
The evidence makes it abundantly clear that the horrendous claims made about Marc on what can only be described as Internet vendetta or hate sites hidden beneath the fig leaf of victim advocacy, are without a shred of truth. To even need say this is in some sense offensive. It is somewhat like a Jewish person needing to deny anti–Semitic claims on a neo–Nazi site.
I was asked to post that letter last summer on the comments section of a post I wrote critical of Gafni being featured at the Integral Theory Conference.There is still a letter on Gafni's site attributed to Robb Smith and Ken Wilber (used to only be Robb) - I wonder if that will also come down?

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Ther Merits of Pre-Cognition (How the future shapes current choices)

ESP

The science world has got itself all up in its own face over a new paper from Daryl J. Bem scheduled to be published this year in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. His new paper suggests that under specific conditions (predicting which screen erotic images will appear upon), people are correct at levels more significant than mere chance.

Two possible explanations:
(1) Pre-cognition - the subjects are able to predict to the future
(2) Retro-causation - the future is influencing the present

Neither of those explanations sit well with other researchers. In fact, Dr. Eric-Jan Wagenmakers who is co-author of a rebuttal to the paper that will appear in the same issue of the journal as Bem's paper, suspects it more about attention grabbing than good science:
“Several top journals publish results only when these appear to support a hypothesis that is counterintuitive or attention-grabbing,” says Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (in the New York Times), “But such a hypothesis probably constitutes an extraordinary claim, and it should undergo more scrutiny before it is allowed to enter the field.”
He's a little less dismissive in his comments than is Ray Hyman, an emeritus professor of psychology at the University Oregon and longtime critic of ESP research:
“It’s craziness, pure craziness. I can’t believe a major journal is allowing this work in,” Hyman said. “I think it’s just an embarrassment for the entire field.”
Judge for yourself (the link will open the paper as a pdf). Here is the paper's abstract and pre-publication information.

Bem, D.J. (2010, in press). Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology; American Psychological Association. Retrieved from http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/psp/index.aspx DOI: 10.1037/a0021524
ABSTRACT
The term psi denotes anomalous processes of information or energy transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical or biological mechanisms. Two variants of psi are precognition (conscious cognitive awareness) and premonition (affective apprehension) of a future event that could not otherwise be anticipated through any known inferential process. Precognition and premonition are themselves special cases of a more general phenomenon: the anomalous retroactive influence of some future event on an individual’s current responses, whether those responses are conscious or nonconscious, cognitive or affective. This article reports 9 experiments, involving more than 1,000 participants, that test for retroactive influence by “timereversing” well-established psychological effects so that the individual’s responses are obtained before the putatively causal stimulus events occur. Data are presented for 4 time-reversed effects: precognitive approach to erotic stimuli and precognitive avoidance of negative stimuli; retroactive priming; retroactive habituation; and retroactive facilitation of recall. All but one of the experiments yielded statistically significant results; and, across all 9 experiments, Stouffer’s z = 6.66, p = 1.34 × 10-11 with a mean effect size (d) of 0.22. The individual-difference variable of stimulus seeking, a component of extraversion, was significantly correlated with psi performance in 5 of the experiments, with participants who scored above the midpoint on a scale of stimulus seeking achieving a mean effect size of 0.43. Skepticism about psi, issues of replication, and theories of psi are also discussed.
In the spirit of balance, here is the rebuttal paper's abstract and information.

Wagenmakers, EJ., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D. & van der Maas, H. (2010, in press). Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology; American Psychological Association. Retrieved from http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/psp/index.aspx DOI: 10.1037/a0021524
Abstract
Does psi exist? In a recent article, Dr. Bem conducted nine studies with over a thousand participants in an attempt to demonstrate that future events retroactively affect people’s responses. Here we discuss several limitations of Bem’s experiments on psi; in particular, we show that the data analysis was partly exploratory, and that one-sided p-values may overstate the statistical evidence against the null hypothesis. We reanalyze Bem’s data using a default Bayesian t-test and show that the evidence for psi is weak to nonexistent. We argue that in order to convince a skeptical audience of a controversial claim, one needs to conduct strictly confirmatory studies and analyze the results with statistical tests that are conservative rather than liberal. We conclude that Bem’s p-values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.
CTV in Canada ran a story on Bem's paper -Has a U.S. psychologist uncovered proof of ESP?

The New York Times, which I quoted from above, ran a good story about the controversy.

A bunch of sciencey folks discuss the issue also at the New York Times. "An Assault on Rationality," and "A Cutoff for Craziness." Seriously? If you can disprove the study then do it, but don't simply attack the ideas. Just because we may not be able to explain them does not mean they are wrong.

When Science Goes Psychic

Introduction

A respected psychology journal has agreed to publish a paper presenting what its author describes as strong evidence for extrasensory perception, the ability to sense future events. Though the paper was peer reviewed, there are many critics who say the research is nonsense. A group of psychologists published a rebuttal paper in the same journal.

How does the peer review process ensure good quality research? Are there factors that the standard process cannot take account of? Or is ESP simply a claim that should not be entertained as a subject of scientific inquiry?

Read the Discussion »

Debaters

I'm surprised at how conservative some of these folks are. Unless Bem totally pushed the stats, which is what the rebuttal paper is kind of arguing, there is no reason not publish a paper that challenges conventional understandings - especially if it a peer-reviewed paper that exhibits proper procedures.

Robert Krulwich wrote about it at the Krulwich Wonders blog for NPR:

Later today you are going to do something, something you don't know about yet.

Yet somehow, it's already happened. Somehow, it's already affected you.

Huh?

An illustration from Lewis Carroll's book Alice in Wonderland.
John Tenniel/Alice in Wonderland

Did Alice know?

One of the most respected, senior and widely published professors of psychology, Daryl Bem of Cornell, has just published an article that suggests that people — ordinary people — can be altered by experiences they haven't had yet. Time, he suggests, is leaking. The Future has slipped, unannounced, into the Present. And he thinks he can prove it.

Already critics are jumping up and down, saying this can't be, time is not porous, the experiments are flawed. But because this is the Professor Daryl Bem (he's in your high school textbook for his work on self perception) and because the journal publishing his article is top-of-the-line rigorous, all over the world psychologists are trying to duplicate what Dr. Bem has done. If serious scientists can repeat his results, this story is going to be big.

An illustration from Lewis Carroll's book Alice in Wonderland of the White Rabbit.
John Tenniel/Alice in Wonderland

Two Very Queer Experiments

But while we're waiting, let me tell you what he did. (Or at least what I think he did. I'm not a psychology buff, so I hope I get this right) The details are fascinating.

Dr. Bem has been quietly testing extrasensory perception claims for 8 years. His paper reports a series of 9 different experiments, but two especially caught my eye.

Experiment Number 1: Who's Got the Porn?

The first is a computer quiz. 100 Cornell students, 50 males, 50 females, were invited to sit in front of some computers. Here are Bem's instructions:

This is an experiment that tests for ESP. It takes about 20 minutes and is run completely by computer. First you will answer a couple of brief questions. Then, on each trial of the experiment, pictures of two curtains will appear on the screen side by side. One of them has a picture behind it; the other has a blank wall behind it. Your task is to click on the curtain that you feel has the picture behind it. The curtain will then open, permitting you to see if you selected the correct curtain. There will be 36 trials in all. Several of the pictures contain explicit erotic images (e.g., couples engaged in nonviolent but explicit consensual sexual acts). If you object to seeing such images, you should not participate in this experiment.

OK, that's two curtains. One is hiding nothing. The other hides a picture, often a hot picture with much nakedness.

Several of the pictures contain explicit erotic images...If you object to seeing such images, you should not participate in this experiment.

Since a computer randomly chooses what's behind each curtain, one would expect the students to choose correctly half the time. Fifty-fifty.

But that is not how it turned out. In the 100 sessions, the hit rate for those shown erotic stimuli was 53.1 percent. Why? It could have been a fluke, but with the results session after session consistently better than random, one explanation might be that the subjects somehow 'knew' that a particular choice would be especially arousing. How did they know? One possibility is that the tasty reward of "hot action" somehow got passed backwards through time more effectively. (Don’t laugh: The hit rate of those shown non-erotic pictures, at 49.8 percent, did not deviate from chance. Curious.)

Sexual Arousal Going Backwards in Time?

Weirder still, Bem reports that the news appeared to arrive at the brain before the computer made its choice. "The remarkable finding [we made] is that their physiological responses are observed to occur about 2-3 seconds prior to the appearance of the picture, even before the computer has decided whether to present a non-arousing or an arousing picture," Bem told the Cornell Daily Sun.

Here's the second study.

Everybody knows practice improves performance. If you study a list of words, if you try to memorize them, you should be able to remember them better later. But suppose you reverse the process? Suppose you study the words after the test? Your friends will smirk. "After the test is too late, loser. People who study after tests don't graduate."

Well, let's see.

In one of Bem's studies, 100 college students were shown a list of 48 common nouns flashed on a computer, one at a time, for three seconds each. The instructions said: Look at the word, try to visualize it (see "tree;" imagine "tree") and then go on to the next word.

Afterward, they were told, Surprise! We're going to give you a quick memory quiz. How many of the words we just showed you can you recall?

Students typed in the words they remembered.

Then a computer went through the same list of words and chose 24 — totally randomly; no human was involved.

Before you leave, the students were told, we still want you to scan and then type the words the computer selected. As they typed, the students were, of course, committing those randomly selected words to memory. But who cares? The test was over.

Did The Future Whisper The Answers?

Now comes the surprise. When Dr. Bem checked the original surprise recall test, a weird pattern emerged. He noticed the students for some reason turned out to be better at recalling the words they had scanned and retyped after the test.

A second group of 24 words served as a control. The computer never asked students to retype them. Those words weren't recalled as often.

Then Bem drops his bomb: "The results show that practicing a set of words after the recall test does, in fact, reach back in time to facilitate the recall of those words."

The results show that [this test] does, in fact, reach back in time...

What? Apparently, scanning and retyping those words later somehow improved recall earlier. Cue the Twilight Zone music.

You can well understand why this paper is raising hackles all over psychology-ville. This is not the first time a prominent psychology professor has found statistical evidence of extrasensory perception, but in these experiments, the methods are classical, simple, well known and repeatable. Already one attempt to repeat Bem's work has failed.

For me (untrained in these matters) the niggling question is Bem's numbers: 53.1 percent is slightly better than chance. It's not 50-50, but is this really significant? The effect shows up across nine different experiments, involving more than a thousand subjects. So the effect in cumulative. But is that enough?

Here's what Melissa Burkley writes in her blog at Psychology Today:

...small effect sizes are not that uncommon in psychology (and other sciences). For example, on average, the Bem studies showed an effect size of .20 (out of a possible range of 0-1). Although that is fairly small, it is as large as or larger than some well-established effects, including the link between aspirin and heart attack prevention, calcium intake and bone mass, second hand smoke and lung cancer, and condom use and HIV prevention (Bushman & Anderson, 2001). And as Cohen has pointed out, such small effect sizes are most likely to occur in the early stages of exploring a topic, when scientists are just starting to discover why the effect occurs and when it is most likely to occur.

So who knows? Maybe psychologists, like quantum physicists, will have to deal with the deep strangeness of our universe. Maybe time doesn't behave properly. Maybe it makes little leaps, suddenly appears uninvited when porn is in the air. Or maybe not.

It's not like we've never thought about this before. In his paper Bem recalls that in "Through the Looking Glass," the White Queen casually mentions to Alice that in her realm, "memory works both ways."

Not only does the Queen remember past events, she can also remember "things that happened the week after next."

Alice, always puzzled, says "I'm sure mine only works one way...I can't remember things before they happen." The Queen seems a little sorry for Alice. "It's a poor sort of memory that only works backwards," she says.

In a year or so, Bem coolly suggests, we may have to agree with the Queen.