Sunday, January 21, 2007

Hillary Is In and She Is the Current Frontrunner

We all knew she was going to run, and now Hillary Clinton has made it semi-official -- she's developing an exploratory commission to test the waters for a presidential bid.

Isn't that a great euphemism? What they really mean when candidates assemble an exploratory commission is that they are going to see how many arms they can twist for campaign funds. Some people are estimating that it will take in the neighborhood of 100 million dollars to win in 2008.

From the New York Times:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton jumped into the 2008 presidential race on Saturday, immediately squaring off against Senator Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic field in what is effectively the party’s first primary, the competition for campaign donations.

“I’m in,” Mrs. Clinton said in an e-mail message to supporters early Saturday. “And I’m in to win.”

If successful, Mrs. Clinton, 59, would be the first female nominee of a major American political party, and she would become the first spouse of a former president to seek a return to the White House.

Her entrance into the race followed Mr. Obama’s by less than a week, and highlighted the urgency for her of not falling behind in the competition for money, especially in New York, her home turf, where the battle has already reached a fever pitch. It also set off rounds of e-mail messages and conference calls among both her allies and opponents.

George Soros, the billionaire New York philanthropist, has made maximum donations in the past to both candidates, for instance, and last week he faced a choice: support Mr. Obama, who created his committee on Tuesday, or stay neutral and see what Mrs. Clinton and others had to say. In his case, the upstart won.

Mr. Soros sent the maximum contribution, $2,100, to Mr. Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois, just hours after he declared his plans to run.

“Soros believes that Senator Obama brings a new energy to the political system and has the potential to be a transformational leader,” said Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Mr. Soros.

Mrs. Clinton’s presidential operation is only one day old, but she already finds herself in a breakneck competition against Mr. Obama for fund-raising supremacy in two towns that she and her husband have mined heavily for political gold: New York and Hollywood. Mr. Obama’s entrance into the race has also put up for grabs other groups that are primary targets for Mrs. Clinton, including African-Americans and women.

At this early stage in the nomination fight, securing donations and signing up fund-raisers are among the best ways of showing political strength in a crowded field (seven Democrats and counting). And Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are looking to raise at least $75 million this year alone.

Read the rest of the article.

The Washington Post/ABC poll in today's paper has Clinton with a huge lead over the field among those likely to vote for a Democrat.

24. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE:

1/19/07 12/11/06
Hillary Clinton 41 39
Barack Obama 17 17
John Edwards 11 12
John Kerry 8 7
Al Gore 10 10
Wesley Clark 1 1
Tom Vilsack * 1
Evan Bayh NA 1
Bill Richardson 1 2
Joe Biden 3 2
Chris Dodd * *
Dennis Kucinich 1 NA
Mike Gravel * NA
Other (vol.) 1 *
None of these (vol.) 2 2
Would not vote (vol.) * 1
No opinion 3 4

This bodes well for Clinton as a candidate for the Democratic nomination, but even more so in the all important effort to raise money for her campaign.

Still, when it comes to running against the possible GOP candidates, she does no better than Obama and, surprisingly, John Edwards appears the most likely to defeat the major GOP candidates. The MSNBC/Newsweek poll that came out yesterday breaks down the race into possible one-on-one scenarios:

3. Suppose you had to choose between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?

Total Clinton

Total McCain

Undec./Other

Current Total

48%

47%

5%

Republicans

9%

87%

4%

Democrats

81%

17%

1%

Independents

43%

49%

8%


3b. Suppose you had to choose between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward Obama, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?

Total Obama

Total McCain

Undec./Other

Current Total

46%

44%

10%





Republicans

11%

83%

6%

Democrats

79%

16%

5%

Independents

40%

44%

16%


3c. Suppose you had to choose between John McCain, the Republican, and John Edwards, the Democrat. Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward McCain, the Republican; or Edwards, the Democrat?

Total Edwards

Total McCain

Undec./Other

Current Total

48%

43%

9%





Republicans

7%

86%

7%

Democrats

84%

14%

2%

Independents

44%

42%

14%


6a/b. Suppose you had to choose between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?

Total Clinton

Total Giuliani

Undec./Other

Current Total

47%

48%

5%





Republicans

5%

92%

3%

Democrats

84%

15%%

1%

Independents

42%

50%

8%


7a/b. Suppose you had to choose between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?

Total Obama

Total Giuliani

Undec./Other

Current Total

45%

47%

8%





Republicans

10%

84%

6%

Democrats

76%

20%

4%

Independents

39%

49%

12%


8a/b. Suppose you had to choose between Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and John Edwards, the Democrat. Who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward Giuliani, the Republican; or Edwards, the Democrat?

Total Edwards

Total Giuliani

Undec./Other

Current Total

48%

45%

7%





Republicans

8%

88%

4%

Democrats

82%

17%

1%

Independents

43%

43%

14%



The race is on and the next few months will be very interesting, especially with Bill Richardson's entry into the field of contenders. The New Mexico Governor could contribute to split of the Democratic field into racial alliances, with Richardson pulling a strong Hispanic following, Obama pulling a strong African-American following, and Clinton and Edwards trying to make the broadest appeal to all minorities. Let's hope that doesn't happen -- the race should be about who is best qualified, not the color of anyone's skin or their ethnic background.


2 comments:

Unknown said...

Bill, I think you're being a tad unfair to Hillary with your lead. She said she's in, and she's in to win. So, she is AN ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE. Thus, there is no "testing of the waters" going on; she's submerged.

The 'exploratory committee' thing isn't any of the candidates or prospective candidates' doing. It has to do with meeting the requirements of the campaign-finance laws.

Also, of no direct fault of the candidates, there is a rush for backers and talent.

Should A LOT be done to fix the way we elect presidents? YES! But no one candidate can behave Simon-pure and expect to get anywhere.

As for these incredibly early general-election polls: I can't see that they have much meaning. Things will change radically before we get to that fork in the road.

william harryman said...

Hey Tom,

Thanks for the info on campaign finance laws -- I generally assumed that the commissions were an attempt to gauge their chances before making an official announcement.

Peace,
Bill