Thursday, November 20, 2008

Kathleen Parker Is Going to Lose Her GOP Card for This Column . . .

But she is totally spot-on correct.

The GOP will continue to lose -- and lose bigger and bigger -- as long as they stay in bed with the fundamentalists. The biggest trend working against them is the urbanization of America:

Population living in Urban Areas[1]

3,629

225,956,060

79.219

Population living in Rural Areas


59,274,456

20.781



[1] Urban areas include all urbanized areas (over 50,000 population) and Urban Clusters (2,500 to 49,999 population) as defined by the Bureau of the Census in the 2000 Decennial Census.

This was as of 2000, and certainly the gap is wider now. The more people live in the cities, especially larger metropolitan areas (58.274 % of Americans live in cities bigger than 200,000 residents), the more liberal (in general) they become. This does not bode well for the future of GOP politics as they currently exist.

When you look at the electoral map for this year, Obama won both coasts and the upper Mid West, as well as Florida and some Southern states closer to the north. Even in states he lost, he tended to win the bigger cities. In general, he won the states with the largest urban populations, a trend that is not likely to change any time soon.

A big part of this is religion. Urban folk are still religious, they are just less dogmatic and more liberal in their religious views. The more rural people are, in general, the more fundamentalist their beliefs. These folk are the GOP base that Parker is writing about in her column.

Here's a bit of her observations:
And shifting demographics suggest that the Republican Party -- and conservatism with it -- eventually will die out unless religion is returned to the privacy of one's heart where it belongs.

Religious conservatives become defensive at any suggestion that they've had something to do with the GOP's erosion. And, though the recent Democratic sweep can be attributed in large part to a referendum on Bush and the failing economy, three long-term trends identified by Emory University's Alan Abramowitz have been devastating to the Republican Party: increasing racial diversity, declining marriage rates and changes in religious beliefs.

Suffice it to say, the Republican Party is largely comprised of white, married Christians. Anyone watching the two conventions last summer can't have missed the stark differences: One party was brimming with energy, youth and diversity; the other felt like an annual Depends sales meeting.

With the exception of Miss Alaska, of course.

Even Sarah Palin has blamed Bush policies for the GOP loss. She's not entirely wrong, but she's also part of the problem. Her recent conjecture about whether to run for president in 2012 (does anyone really doubt she will?) speaks for itself:

"I'm like, okay, God, if there is an open door for me somewhere, this is what I always pray, I'm like, don't let me miss the open door. Show me where the open door is.... And if there is an open door in (20)12 or four years later, and if it's something that is going to be good for my family, for my state, for my nation, an opportunity for me, then I'll plow through that door."

Let's do pray that God shows Alaska's governor the door.

Meanwhile, it isn't necessary to evict the Creator from the public square, surrender Judeo-Christian values or diminish the value of faith in America. Belief in something greater than oneself has much to recommend it, including most of the world's architectural treasures, our universities and even our founding documents.

But, like it or not, we are a diverse nation, no longer predominantly white and Christian. The change Barack Obama promised has already occurred, which is why he won.

Go read the whole thing.


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